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Take quizPoker can be one of the most rewarding and most punishing games in the world at the same time, depending on which side of variance you fall on. The one thing that keeps poker games running is the fact that anyone can win on any given night, given the right cards and enough luck to have them hold up.
However, the best players always come out winning in the long run because they can lose the minimum in their losing sessions and win the maximum when running well, which is probably one of the best traits of the actual winners.
Regardless of your skill level, you will face poker downswings and extended periods of time when things simply aren’t going your way.
In this article, we try to explain what poker downswings are, why they happen, how they manifest, and how you can battle them to avoid going broke or losing your mind in the process.
Whether you are playing live or online poker, losing in a single poker session cannot be called a poker downswing. In fact, you should expect to lose quite a high percentage of the overall games you play.
A poker downswing, on the other hand, is an extended period or a number of sessions over which you are consistently booking losses, whether they are mitigated by small wins in-between or not. More precisely, a downswing is when you are running significantly under the expected value for an extended period.
Downswings are quite common in both live and online poker, and every player goes through them, whether a professional or an amateur.
A significant losing week or month can be called a downswing, provided you have the numbers to show you are a winner in the game.
If you are a losing player, to begin with, poker downswings will be even more common, and this is especially true if you are the maniac type of player who likes to splash around and spread the money to other players without worrying much about your equity or anything else.
Before you can talk about upswings and downswings in poker, you should play a significant volume in the game you intend to play in the long run and get some raw numbers.
It is not very hard for online players to calculate their win rate, as programs like Hold’em Manager or Poker Tracker do this quite effectively. All you need to do is store all your hands on your computer and import them into the database, and the software will tell you everything you need to know.
On the other hand, if you play live poker, you will need to carefully record your numbers yourself and ensure you never miss any good or bad sessions. On top of that, you will need different sets of data to determine your long-term win rate for different game formats.
For example, a thousand hours of playing live cash games is considered a significant sample, while anywhere between one thousand and three thousand online MTTs can be said to be the same.
Once you reach these numbers, you can tell how you do in the games and what your expected BB/100 or ROI actually is.
Remember that your stats over a couple of thousand hands of live poker don’t matter, and neither do the stats from a session or two playing online.
There is simply so much variance involved in poker that players with high win rates will go through bad downswings and the other way around, which means you need to have a big sample to get statistically relevant numbers.
The truth is that the duration and size of your poker downswings will significantly depend on your win rate in the games you are playing. The higher your win rate over the long run, the shorter your downswings will be and the less they will hurt, as your huge edge over your opponents can help diminish much of the impact.
Yet, even if your win rate is massive, you could experience some brutal poker downswings, especially in wild live poker games where pots go multiway, and the stacks are deep.
Once you have established a significant sample of hands/tournaments in your database, you can also run simulations in the poker variance calculator to get some charts that will tell you the likelihood of going on particular swings.
For example, if you are winning 10BB per hour in live cash games, the software will tell you how likely you will lose money over 10,000 or 20,000 hands and how many hands you need to play to stand no chance of losing.
Yet, remember that even your win rate is subject to change if players in the game change or you change up your playing style, and there are no absolutes in the game of poker.
As to the length of a poker downswing, it will have a lot to do with how able you are to play your best poker at all times and many other factors you can’t always influence.
We have all been on the bad side of poker variance at one point or another, and there is no denying that it can truly hurt a lot.
When going through a downswing in poker, it seems like you can’t hit any draws, your bluffs are constantly getting picked off, and your flopped sets seem to always be second-best by the river.
So what do you do about variance and bad luck? The answer is nothing! There is no need to do anything special to change your luck or end a downswing.
The poker downswing you are going through now will end as abruptly as it started, and the only thing you need to do is keep making good decisions.
This means you should not be making decisions on whether you believe your flush draw will come in or not but whether you have enough equity to call or not.
The same goes for picking bluffing spots, making value bets, and everything else you do at the poker table. You should not change your game just because you are winning or losing at a particular time.
Of course, this is easier said than done, and players tend to make at least some of their decisions with prejudice, which is one of the elements you will need to train if you want to make it in poker in the long run.
Of all the skills a poker player must possess, discipline is probably the most valuable, and you won't become a great poker player without it. If you lose your senses and start playing bad poker the moment you go on a downswing, you are destined for failure.
The bad luck and the impact of the downswing will be compounded by you playing badly, and you will end up losing every last chip in play, decimating your bankroll very quickly.
A good poker player protects their bankroll, plays within their means, and never makes plays in the hopes of getting lucky.
Regardless of how the cards are hitting, there is always a chance your luck will turn around, and you will win a huge pot, so remember to play the best game you know how to at all times.
Furthermore, you must be honest with yourself, admit your mistakes, and objectively look back at your sessions.
While going through a rough poker session, remember not to try and bluff every hand or win back your losses by hitting miracle one-outers. Rather, face on applying solid strategy and taking the spots that actually make sense.
Finally, you should also remember to take some time off poker while going through a downswing and dedicate yourself to your hobbies and other passions.
If poker is not treating you well, remember to do things that make you happy, remember your life is good regardless of how the cards are hitting, and get back to playing when you are in a strong mental state.
On top of that, instead of battling it at the tables, you can devote a bit more time to studying and ensuring you are playing you’re A-game.
Tournament poker differs from cash games in many ways, and the way downswings manifest is one of the biggest ones. Thanks to the top-heavy payout structure in tournament poker, it is very common for players to go on massive downswings.
In fact, I have seen players lose hundreds of buyins in tournaments they are absolutely crushing before finally turning it around with a couple of big scores. If you hope to have a successful career as a tournament poker pro, you must build a thick skin and an even sturdier bankroll.
Playing online tournaments without at least 200 average buyins in your bankroll is not a good idea if you want to avoid the chance of busting your roll.
In live tournaments, there is really no telling how long downswings can last, as the volume you get to play is tiny, even in combination with the terrible quality of players you will likely face.
If MTTs appeal to you, remember that most days will be a big disappointment, and learn to live with this as you wait for the big days that change the course of your week, month, or even year.
It is very common for poker players to reach a point where they can beat a particular game format and stop studying for the most part. This is one of the biggest mistakes you can make, as constantly studying poker will teach you new skills you can apply at the tables and ensure you don't forget any of your old tricks.
Thinking about poker while not playing the game is the best way to think about things objectively and approach the hands you have played from a theoretical perspective.
It can be all too easy to make mistakes and think you have done everything perfectly, but you should always examine your game and your opponents' games after a session, if possible.
This is especially true for online poker players who can access their hands in full and run through hands from point A to point Z using the software.
For live poker players, it is also highly recommended to jot down some interesting situations while playing and get back to them later. This can help you find exploits you can use against particular players in the future or mistakes you can avoid making again.
Whatever your favorite game format, always make your game even stronger and find new ways to get more value from each hand you play.
You may think I have completely lost my mind to say that poker downswings have a good side, but they definitely do. In fact, it is because of variance, downswings, and upswings that poker as a game even exists today and remains so popular.
If not for variance and the possibility for the best players to lose, there is no chance that poker would be so highly appealing to the masses.
Much like chess, the game would not be played for any significant money by most players if there was no way to beat the better players.
Thanks to luck and variance, and you going on some downswings, bad players will continue to come back and challenge you, hoping to have a good night and get the better of you.
As long as you can deal with your downswings the right way and maintain your discipline and composure, you can continue being a successful poker player and fly under the radar, living the life you always wanted and not caring about variance in the long run at all.
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