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$1.1 million on the line. Pocket sevens. The chip leader is shoving. What's your move?
At the 2024 WSOP Online Event #29: $25k GG Million$ Super High Roller final table, Samuel Mullur faced this exact decision. He is a Grindhouse 3 participant who recently climbed to the highest stakes after joining Fedor's private mentoring group called 's00n.' Nine players remain. Do you take the risk and call, potentially seizing a commanding lead, or do you fold and play it safe? In this moment, it’s not just about calculating odds — it’s about what Fedor Holz calls the "future game."
In a recent Pokercode coaching session, Fedor challenged the usual reliance on hand charts, GTO poker strategies, and ICM calculators. He urged players to go beyond the immediate math, to think in terms of future opportunities and the overall tournament strategy. This approach, known as "future game," is about seeing several moves ahead, much like a chess grandmaster. Let’s dive into this high-stakes hand and explore why future game thinking might just be the key to winning big.
Picture this: Samuel sits in the small blind with a decent stack of around 20 big blinds at the final table of the WSOP Online Event #29: $25k GG Million$ Super High Roller. The blinds are climbing, putting pressure on every decision. The situation is incredibly tense—this is a nine-handed final table, and the stakes could not be higher. The chip leader, Christopher Brewer, has effectively shoved all in from the button. The bet size was more than enough to put both the blinds all in. Samuel, must decide whether to call or fold. It’s a classic risk-versus-reward moment—calling could make him the chip leader, potentially allowing him to exert some pressure on the rest of the field. However, folding would allow him to preserve his stack, maintaining his current position but without gaining any momentum.
Adding to the complexity is the ICM pressure in play, which refers to the value of chips at different stages of a tournament and how this affects decision-making. The payout differences are immense—the first-place prize is over $1.1 million, while ninth place receives around $140,000. The disparity in payouts makes each decision critical, and the pressure to avoid making a misstep is palpable. In situations like this, ICM (Independent Chip Model) calculations are crucial to understand the risk-reward trade-off. Brewer’s shove as the chip leader puts both Samuel and the big blind in a very tough spot, as they both face the risk of elimination if they call and lose. Brewer's action puts immense pressure on them, forcing difficult decisions. Samuel must weigh his options carefully, which impacts the decision to call or fold.
What would you do in this spot? It’s easy to lean on solver advice for GTO poker, but there’s more to the story when it comes to poker tournament decision making. During the coaching session, Fedor polled his audience, and most said they would call with tens or better, meaning they would fold eights—and certainly sevens. Surprisingly for most, the solver suggested calling with eights or better would be profitable in this scenario, but anything lower wouldn’t be worth the risk. However, is that really the full story?
The decision facing Samuel Mullur isn't straightforward. Solvers are sophisticated tools that analyze countless scenarios to recommend the optimal decision. In this particular situation, the solver recommended folding pocket sevens, assigning it a negative expected value (EV). However, Fedor did not agree with the solver output. He pointed out that solvers can sometimes miss the nuances of real gameplay, such as position, stack depth, player skill, future game implications, and player styles.
The Independent Chip Model (ICM) is often relied on to calculate the value of chips in a tournament setting, especially as players approach money bubbles or final tables. Many players use a poker ICM calculator to evaluate the risk-reward balance in these scenarios. But Fedor warns about falling into an "ICM trap," where players focus too much on surviving rather than thriving. As Nacho Barbero put it: "ICM is for poor people." This blunt statement highlights the danger of being overly cautious and missing game-changing opportunities. Poker isn’t just about hanging on; it’s about creating opportunities and taking risks that could pay off massively.
Solvers assume that everyone at the table plays perfectly, but we know that in the real world, that’s rarely the case. Players are human, and they have tendencies, biases, and flaws. Understanding these elements can turn a good play into a great one. That’s why, even with the solver’s recommendation to fold sevens, Fedor encouraged considering the broader context and the human element of poker.
This is where the concept of "future game" comes in. Future game is about looking beyond the immediate hand and considering how a decision now will influence future opportunities. Much like chess, poker isn’t just about the move in front of you — it’s about the position you’ll be in several moves from now. Future game is all about setting yourself up for future success, and it's an essential mindset for tournament play. These are crucial tournament poker tips that can make the difference between surviving and thriving in high-stakes situations.
Imagine if Samuel calls with sevens and wins. Suddenly, he’s the chip leader, with the power to put some pressure on other players and gain a stronger position at the table. In this spot, the future game isn’t just about the chips in this particular hand; it’s about gaining a strategic advantage that could lead to long-term success. By winning this hand, Samuel not only gains chips but also gains leverage, allowing him more room to maneuver though not quite enough to dictate the pace of the game yet.
Fedor explains that calling here could set Samuel up to gain a strong position at the table, especially since the chip leader’s shove could be wider than the solver assumes. In this scenario, future game thinking looks beyond the immediate EV and considers the ripple effect of gaining momentum and control. Momentum is a critical factor in poker; when you have a chip lead, you have more freedom to make moves, push others around, and force them into tough decisions.
One crucial aspect of future game is understanding your opponents. Solvers are powerful, but they don’t account for player tendencies — they assume ideal play from everyone. In reality, different players have different shoving and calling ranges. Recognizing these tendencies can be the difference between making a good play and a great play. Observing how players react under pressure, their tendencies when they have a big stack versus a small one, and their emotional responses can provide invaluable insights.
Fedor analyzed the chip leader's behavior and concluded that Brewer might be shoving a different range than the solver anticipated. This insight suggested that calling with a wider range of hands — including sevens — could be more profitable than the solver’s recommendation. Understanding player behavior and adjusting accordingly is critical. It’s not just about the cards; it’s about the flow of the game and the people you’re playing against. Poker is as much a game of people as it is a game of cards.
Another aspect to consider is the psychological pressure of final tables. Players may become more cautious, or conversely, overly aggressive. A solver cannot account for a player's mental state, fatigue, or desire to avoid making a mistake. Samuel, by understanding Brewer's tendencies and the dynamic at the final table, could turn what appears to be a marginal situation into an opportunity to take control of the tournament.
Poker is ultimately a game of risk and reward, especially in high stakes poker strategy. Fedor urges players to focus on chipping up — making decisions that maximize their chances of accumulating chips — rather than just trying to survive. This mindset shift is crucial. The biggest winners are those who seize opportunities, even if they come with risks. Taking risks is what separates average players from champions.
Think about it: if you’re always playing it safe, how do you ever build a commanding chip lead? Nacho Barbero's quote, "ICM is for poor people," highlights his belief that playing too cautiously can prevent players from taking the bold risks needed to win big. This mindset contrasts with conventional ICM thinking, which often emphasizes survival over chip accumulation. Nacho's perspective is a reminder that caution can sometimes cost you more than taking a chance. Sometimes the best move is the one that positions you for a big win later on, even if it means risking your tournament life now. Recognizing these pivotal moments and having the courage to make bold plays can make the difference between merely cashing and taking down the entire tournament.
Future game isn’t about reckless gambling; it’s about calculated risk-taking. For example, deciding to call a shove when you believe your opponent's range is weaker than expected can be a calculated risk that pays off in the long run. It’s about understanding the long-term value of your moves and recognizing when a risk can propel you to victory. This concept of calculated risk is central to becoming a winning tournament player. Fedor’s approach encourages players to take ownership of their decisions, understand their opponents deeply, and not be afraid to deviate from conventional, solver-based wisdom when the situation calls for it.
The biggest takeaway here is that poker, especially tournament poker, is about much more than the immediate calculations provided by ICM. It’s about understanding the dynamics of the game, recognizing pivotal moments, and having the courage to make bold plays. Embracing the concept of future game means thinking beyond current solvers and trusting your understanding of the game’s flow and your opponents’ tendencies. It’s about learning when to challenge conventional wisdom and take risks that might seem unconventional but are rooted in a deep understanding of the game.
Imagine being able to read a table so well that you know when an opportunity presents itself to flip the tournament on its head. That’s what future game thinking offers. It gives you the ability to see beyond what’s immediately in front of you, anticipate how your decisions will shape the coming hands, and understand how to best exploit your opponents' weaknesses.
GTO (Game Theory Optimal) poker is an approach to poker where players make decisions that are theoretically unexploitable. It involves making mathematically balanced plays to prevent opponents from gaining an edge.
'Future Game' is about considering not just the immediate value of a hand, but how a decision can influence future opportunities in the tournament. It goes beyond GTO and ICM concepts, emphasizing strategic positioning for long-term gains.
Key tournament poker tips include understanding ICM pressure, adapting to player tendencies, focusing on balancing chip accumulation and survival, and taking calculated risks when opportunities arise.
Poker solver recommendations are based on perfect play from all players. In real games, other factors such as stack distributions, player skill, future game implications, and individual player styles can make deviating from solver advice more profitable.
A poker ICM calculator is valuable during critical tournament stages, especially near money bubbles or final tables, to assess your stack value, risks, and potential winnings, and to make informed decisions.
Master future game thinking with world-class pros. Join an elite community of winning players like Samuel Mullur (Samu Sabu) and get exclusive access to advanced tournament strategy.
If you want to take your game to the next level, challenge conventional thinking, and be part of a community that embraces growth, join Pokercode at pokercode.com and connect with us on Discord at discord.gg/pokercode. Let’s push the boundaries of poker together, exploring new strategies, thinking ahead, and making bold moves that set you apart from the competition. Join us, and let's redefine what it means to be a successful poker player.
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